The election in Haryana has entered an interesting phase. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Sonipat, Rahul Gandhi started his campaign from two places in the state. His rally was the most awaited for the simple reason that everyone wanted to know whether Kumari Selja would join him or not. Finally, after a lot of suspense, she was seen on the same platform as Rahul, along with Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The Congress, which seems to be ahead in the race at the moment, must have heaved a sigh of relief. But whether this ceasefire between the two tallest leaders of the party in the state will be lasting and result in victory remains to be seen.
A Chance For Rahul To Cement His Glory
For various reasons, Haryana is going to be the litmus test not only for the Congress but also for Rahul. This year’s Lok Sabha elections gave a new lease of life to him. His party improved its seat tally from 52 to 99, with the credit for this boost going mostly to Rahul. His status in the party as its most significant leader, which was in doubt since the 2019 elections, has finally been cemented. The days of ‘G23’ in the Congress are over. Rahul now has the final word on party matters. He is also informally treated as the leader of the entire opposition. In that sense, a victory in Haryana will further bolster his image as the new mass base leader in Indian politics and a worthy challenger to Modi.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana was dismal. It could win only five seats out of 10, and its vote share dropped by 12 percentage points vis a vis the last parliamentary election. Back then, in 2019, the vote share gap between the two parties had been a whopping 30%. But in the assembly election that took place after three months, the BJP failed to get a majority mark and had to take the support of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had severely criticised PM Modi earlier.
The BJP Is Struggling
The BJP’s second term in the state has been disappointing, to say the least. The party’s high command had to replace Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar at the last minute. Today, his face is missing from the party’s publicity material. The new chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, seems equally ineffective. The BJP seems to be struggling in this election and it will be a miracle if it turns the table on counting day.
More than Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana is singularly important for Rahul Gandhi. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress is a junior partner. It is in alliance with the National Conference and is contesting only 32 seats, mostly in the Jammu region. The BJP is not a major player in the Valley either and is banking on independents and smaller parties. Given that this will be the first assembly election in Jammu & Kashmir after the abrogation of articles 370 and 35A, the Modi government’s prestige is at stake.
Bitter Past
But Haryana is a different ballgame. For the BJP, the state has made news in the last few years for all the wrong reasons. It turned into a battleground during the farmer’s movement and after over a year of discontent, PM Modi had to withdraw the three farm laws. But the treatment meted out to the farmers and attempts to paint them as ‘Khalistanis’ made them bitter. Their anger is still intact in many places in the state’s rural areas and there are reports that BJP candidates are either being gheraoed or being chased away in several villages. Rahul, meanwhile, has squarely blamed Modi for the ill-treatment. He has also promised that if the Congress forms a government at the Centre, then the party would give legal guarantees of MSP, one of the main demands of farmers.
The people of Haryana are also anguished over the way women wrestlers protesting against alleged sexual harassment by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Singh were treated by the BJP government. It was only after the intervention of the Supreme Court that an FIR was registered against Singh. These girls were so disappointed that they even decided to throw their medals in the Ganga. No arrest was made and though he was denied a party ticket for the Lok Sabha election, Singh’s son contested elections as a proxy. When Vignesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia joined the Congress, a few BJP leaders accused them of a conspiracy. In this light, the people of Haryana, specifically the Jat community, believe that the BJP did not take any action against Singh because it was scared of losing a few seats in Uttar Pradesh and did not want to annoy the Rajput community.
The BJP’s strategy since it came to power in 2014 was to polarise other castes against the Jat community, to which a majority of protesting wrestlers also belong. In fact, ignoring the Jat leaders’ demands, the party appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi, as the chief minister.
A Defeat Can Confuse Congress
Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has supported the wrestlers’ cause from the beginning. A victory for the Congress will raise his stature in the community. A loss will send a wrong signal and will lead to the marginalisation of the community.
Since his Bharat Jodo Yatra, Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a strong challenger to Modi’s politics. He has also very strongly raised the issue of social justice and caste census. He is weaving a parallel narrative against the BJP’s Hindutva and nationalism plans and has accused the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) of pursuing divisive politics and dividing society on religious lines. There are trends that show that his politics, like in South India, have traction in north Indian states too. Even in Haryana, he is very close to Modi in terms of popularity.
If the Congress wins Haryana with a big margin, then it will be a big stamp of approval to Rahul’s politics of secularism and his recent experiment with social justice. A loss on the other hand will bring confusion in the Congress ranks. It will also break the momentum that Rahul and his party have attained since the parliamentary elections.
It is in this context that bringing two warring factions in Haryana on the same platform is good for both Rahul and the Congress.
(Ashutosh is the author of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
