Aleppo Attacked, Bashar Assad In Trouble. Syria Heading For Regime Change?

Syrian Islamist rebels have launched one of their biggest offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in years, sweeping through government-held towns before taking control of “half of the city of Aleppo”. This is the first major challenge to President Assad and his allies– Russia and Iran– in four years. Rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced from the remaining Syrian opposition-held region of Idlib, where front lines have been largely stagnant since Russia and Turkey, which backed the rebels, agreed to a ceasefire in 2020.

By Friday, the opposition fighters and their Turkish-backed allies had taken more than 50 towns and villages in the north and entered the western districts of Aleppo, a city of around two million people that was Syria’s pre-war manufacturing hub.

The fighters swiftly captured half of Aleppo without meeting significant resistance, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 

“There has been no fighting, not a single shot was fired, as regime forces withdrew,” AFP quoted Observatory’s director Rami Abdel Rahman as saying.

The offensive began on Wednesday, the same day Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel entered a fragile ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian government and its Russian backers reportedly retaliated with air strikes in the newly captured territory and other rebel-held areas.

According to the Britain-based Observatory, the fighting was initially fierce, with 277 people killed. The toll included 28 civilians, most killed by Russian air strikes.

Civil War In Syria

The civil war in Syria began in March 2011 when Mr Assad’s regime launched a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in the city of Deraa. The Assad family, which ruled Syria since 1971, used brutal force to try to crush the uprising. The demonstrations soon spread across the country, with protestors arming themselves to defend their towns and launch attacks on the Syrian army.

In the following months, the rebels fractured into hundreds of armed groups. The conflict also attracted jihadist extremist groups like HTS–a faction formerly linked to the terrorist group Al Qaeda– who soon became one of the dominant anti-government factions. United States has proscribed HTS as a terrorist group. 

With rebel groups making gains during the early years of the civil war, Bashar al-Assad sought help from his allies for his regime to survive. Iran, Syria’s closest ally, backed his regime from the beginning of the war by providing advisers, weapons, billions of dollars and troops to help Mr Assad maintain his grip, according to a report by The Telegraph. 

Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah have also been reportedly supporting Mr Assad’s army since at least 2012. Russia also decided to back the government forces in 2015, with President Vladimir Putin committing Moscow’s air force as well as ground troops to ensure the Syrian regime did not fall. 

However, neighbouring Turkey, another major player in the war, threw its weight behind the opposition to Mr Assad’s regime. Ankara used rebel factions in Syria to contain the Kurdish YPG, that dominates the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). According to Ankara, the group is an extension of a banned Kurdish rebel group in Turkey, as per The Telegraph report. 

But with Tehran and Moscow’s help, Mr Assad was able to change the tide of rebellion and recapture major cities, and in March 2020, Russia– which backs Mr Assad– and Turkey– which supports the rebels– brokered a cease-fire to halt fighting in the Idlib region.

As per a United Nations estimate released in 2022, around 300,000 people had been killed in the decade-long conflict.

Latest Uprising

Over the years, Moscow and Tehran have robustly helped President Bashar al-Assad’s autocratic regime to stave off the rebels. However, in recent months, the ceasefire has been repeatedly breached, with analysts saying there has been a rise in attacks against the enclave by the Mr Assad regime and its allies.

The later offensive reportedly unites various rebel factions that represent the last vestiges of opposition groups. The main group is HTS, which controls most of the northwestern territory still held by opposition groups. Several Turkish-backed rebel groups have also joined the offensive, according to a report by the New York Times.

As per the report, Lt. Col. Hassan Abdulghany, military commander of the opposition’s operations room, issued a video statement announcing the offensive and said the attack was aimed at stemming Syrian airstrikes and other attacks on opposition-held territory.

“To push back their fire from our people, this operation is not a choice. It is an obligation to defend our people and their land…It has become clear to everyone that the regime militias and their allies, including the Iranian mercenaries, have declared an open war on the Syrian people,” he said.

Timing of Rebellion Against Mr Asaad’s Regime

While Syria hasn’t been directly involved in the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, its territory has reportedly long been a proxy battlefield for international powers. For years, Israel has carried out deadly strikes in Syria, saying its targets are Iran-backed groups including the Lebanese group Hezbollah. 

Those attacks have escalated in the wake of the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. This has weakened Asaad’s regime. Moreover, Presidnet Asaad has relied on Russian and Iranian forces help to keep the rebels in check for years, but the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have also weakened his allies. 

“Pro-regime militias have been upping their attacks in the area, trying to deter the rebels because Israel has been weakening the Syrian regime’s allies like Hezbollah and Iran,” said Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the New York Times. 

Experts said that the success of the offensive so far indicates that the Syrian government is vulnerable and various opposition factions are growing their prowess.

“Years ago, an offence of this size would have been pushed back by the regime,” Charles Lister, the Director of the Middle East Institute’s Syria and Counterterrorism programmes, told the newspaper.

However, opposition forces like HTS have invested heavily in resources and training for night operations. “That basically levels the playing field,” he added.

Who controls what in Syria?

Over a decade-long civil war, an invasion by the terror group Islamic State and several proxy battles have left Syria divided into different power control zones.

President Asaad’s government reportedly controls over 60 per cent of the country. But large parts of Syria are still out of the government’s control, including opposition-held areas in the northwest and the northeast. These areas are mainly dominated by US-backed Kurdish-led group. Other opposition-controlled areas are in northwest Syria including parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, which are home to about 5 million people.