Tamil Nadu’s two biggest parties – the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which dominate the state’s political landscape – have begun (delayed) seat-sharing talks with current and potential allies before the April/May election.
The southern state has 39 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2019 election the DMK and smaller Tamil parties, which allied with the Congress, dominated the results, winning 38 seats. The 39th was won by the AIADMK, which was then allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party and other regional outfits. Fast-forward to today, and sources have said both sides have stepped up talks for fresh agreements.
DMK boss MK Stalin will today meet his party’s seat-share committee, which is led by Sriperumbudur MP TR Baalu, while the AIADMK has reached out to K Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Tamizhagam.
The Puthiya Tamizhagam is also being courted by the BJP, which has been without a major alliance partner since an irate AIADMK snapped ties in September last year.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party has, so far, only agreed a deal with the Tamil Maanila Congress of GK Vasan, and is also talking to S Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi.
The DMK-Congress-INDIA Deal
The DMK is a member of the INDIA bloc led by the Congress – with whom it was allied for the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections, and recorded big wins in each instance.
However, with the 2024 election now weeks away the DMK has not yet agreed a deal with the national party, or smaller members of its alliance, like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi.
The Congress last time contested nine seats and won eight.
READ |Â Congress, DMK Hold “Very Satisfactory” Talks For Lok Sabha Polls
Mr Stalin’s party has, though, allotted two seats each to the Communist Party of India and CPIM, as well as one each to the Indian Union Muslim League and the Kongu Desa Makkal Katchi. In 2019 too, the CPI and CPIM contested four (and won four) and the IUML and KDMK two each, which they won.
Other members of the state-level grouping, called the Secular Progressive Alliance, are the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi and the Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi, which contested and won two seats.
Sources have said the Thoothukudi seat – which the DMK’s Kanimozhi won back from the AIADMK in 2019 – may be kept for her. Ms Kanimozhi was earlier a two-time Rajya Sabha MP from the state.
The INDIA bloc was formed in June last year to stop the BJP from claiming a third consecutive term.
The group has, however, found it difficult to close seat-share deals.
The tide seemed to turn last month after the Congress concluded deals with the Samajwadi Party for Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats, with the Aam Aadmi Party for five states including Delhi, and with allies in Maharashtra. The AAP-Congress’ victory in the Chandigarh mayoral poll was also a boost.
The AIADMK-BJP Question
Meanwhile, the DMK’s eternal rival – the AIADMK – has given no sign it is open to re-aligning with the BJP. The AIADMK and BJP fell out last year amid repeated attacks by the latter’s state unit boss, K Annamalai, on past and present leaders of the former, including its founder and ex-Chief Minister MG Ramachandran and his mentor, CN Annadurai, who was the state’s first Chief Minister.
The BJP, sources have said, has reached out to its former ally but has, for now, been snubbed. In fact, senior party leader KP Munusamy threw down a direct challenge, daring the BJP to field Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman – currently a Rajya Sabha MP – from the state, if it felt strong enough.
READ |Â BJP Gets “Field Nirmala Sitharaman” Dare From AIADMK Leader
The AIADMK has, instead, reached out to the Puthiya Tamizhagam, which has never won a Lok Sabha seat and only two Assembly segments since it made its electoral debut in 1998.
BJP Planning Solo Contest?
The BJP has historically been a non-performer in the state, where the political narrative is dominated by the Dravidian movement. The national party’s vote-share is less than three per cent.
As a result, the Prime Minister has been very active, making four visits already this year. He has also led his party’s outreach to the AIADMK; last week, while in Chennai, he invoked the legacy of the party’s founder and iconic former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, and attacked the DMK.
READ |Â BJP’s Hunt For Tamil Nadu Allies In Focus As PM Makes 4th Visit
“(AIADMK founder) MGR gave quality education and healthcare… which is why his popularity was unmatched among the poor. The way the DMK works is an insult to MGR and Jayalalithaa,” he said.
READ |Â PM’s Praise For AIADMK’s MGR, Jayalalithaa Months After Ally’s Exit
The move, was not well received; the AIADMK called it “cheap politics”. “We are clear… no return to NDA. They are spreading fake news,” D Jayakumar said.
So far, only the Tamil Maanila Congress – already part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has agreed a deal; party boss GK Vasan said, “Ours is a regional party with a national outlook.”
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