Explained: The Implications of Iran’s Military Barrage On Israel

Israel has sworn it will retaliate for Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday, which involved more than 180 ballistic missiles and was largely thwarted by Israel’s air defence systems.

Below are some ways Israel, backed by the United States, could strike back.

GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS

Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks. It could also take out Iranian air defence systems and missile-launching facilities.

Washington has accused Tehran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries deny that allegation.

Analysts said that would be seen as the most in-kind response to Iran’s attack. 

ATTACK IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES

Strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities could delay Tehran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran’s nuclear program is spread over many locations, only some of which are built underground. 

However, a major attack on its nuclear infrastructure would likely provoke serious consequences, potentially including a sprint by Iran to build a nuclear weapon. Washington has said it would not support such an action by Israel.

Richard Hooker, a retired US Army officer who served in the US National Security Council under Republican and Democratic presidents, said it was a “distinct possibility” that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities but not a probability “because when you do something like that you put the Iranian leadership in a position to do something pretty dramatic in response.”

The Islamic Republic denies ever having had a nuclear weapons program or planning to have one.

The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and the US intelligence community concluded that Iran pursued a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003, and experts say that with the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in a matter of weeks.   

ATTACK IRAN’S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE

Israel could also hit Iran’s petroleum industry, which would hurt its economy. Such an attack could provoke Iran in turn to strike oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states. That could send the price of fuel, always a major US campaign issue, soaring before Americans pick a new president and Congress in the Nov. 5 elections.

“I’m not sure that (a hike in world oil prices) would restrain the Israelis,” said David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official involved in Gulf policy now with the US National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center. Israel, he added, might view a hike in world oil prices as a benefit for former President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently has been more aligned with Trump’s Republicans than with Democrats.

ECONOMIC, CYBER OPTIONS

A military response is considered the most likely, but there are options that do not involve missile strikes or commando raids.

US President Joe Biden has said he would impose more sanctions on Iran. Washington’s sanctions on Iran already ban nearly all US trade with the country, block its government’s assets in the US and prohibit US. foreign assistance and arms sales.

Analysts said Israel could also use its cyber warfare abilities to respond to the Iranian strikes.

Israel’s recent mass pager attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon turned the spotlight on its secretive Unit 8200, the Israel Defense Forces’ specialist cyber warfare and intelligence unit, which Western security sources said was involved in planning the operation.