Eye On Election, Uddhav Thackeray, Allies’ Seat-Share Talks Moves To Phase 2

Seat-sharing – the stumbling block of many a political alliance – is in focus before the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election, with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi expected to hold a second round of talks this week, to continue dividing the state’s 288 seats ahead of voting expected in October.

The first round was on Saturday in which a deal for Mumbai’s 36 seats was “99 per cent finalised”, the Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut said, though also stating details will be shared after a ‘full agreement’ is reached. He stressed, however, “We want Mumbai in the hands of Marathi-speaking people.”

Mr Raut’s assertions aside, sources told NDTV there is still friction over the division of Mumbai’s 36 seats; it appears ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray‘s Sena wants 16-20 seats and the Congress at least 15. The third MVA member – Sharad Pawar’s NCP – is believed to want seven to eight seats.

The reported minimum ask from each party puts them two seats over that available.

Mumbai is widely seen as the Sena’s bastion; in the 2019 Assembly election party (then undivided and allied with the BJP) won 14 seats and together the two swept the city, winning 30 of 36 seats.

The Congress picked up four and one, respectively. Zeeshan Siddique, Aslam Sheikh, Amin Patel, and Varsha Gaikwad were winners for the Congress and Nawab Malik claimed the NCP’s sole win.

Normally it shouldn’t be too much of a strain for the Sena to have its way on this issue.

However, the Congress’ showing in the April-June Lok Sabha election (Ms Gaikwad won the Mumbai North Central seat), gives the national party room to push for a greater share of seats.

READ | At Thackeray-Congress Meet, Talks On Seat Sharing, Candidates

Sources told NDTV talks over seat-sharing, for Mumbai and the rest of the state, will include discussions on ‘winnability’, i.e., including establishing the political and demographic intricacies of each seat and which of the three parties’ candidates has the best chance of winning.

Who Will Be MVA’s Chief Minister Face?

Meanwhile, there are also disagreements within the Maha Vikas Aghadi over the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate. Specifically, the Congress and NCP are reluctant to make such a declaration at this stage, while the Sena is pushing for a consensus figure.

One option will almost certainly be Uddhav Thackeray – whose first term was cut short by the Sena-NCP rebellion – but the former Chief Minister has also said he will back any candidate, announced by the Congress and NCP (SP), as the MVA’s candidate for the top job.

READ | Will Back Any MVA Candidate For Chief Minister: Uddhav Thackeray

“I don’t have the feeling I am fighting for myself but for the rights of Maharashtra,” he said in Mumbai. He insisted then it would be prudent for the MVA to decide an alliance leader before the election rather than do so after the result – which has been the Congress’ strategy in recent polls.

Mr Thackeray’s apparent insistence on the MVA identifying a chief ministerial candidate, a figure around whom they can build a campaign, comes amid attacks by the BJP – who will likely rely on the tried-and-tested charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win another election – on this issue.

Mr Thackeray will likely also remember the fallout of the 2019 Assembly election.

The Sena and BJP won comfortably but the two split after failing to agree a post-poll chief ministerial nominee, which even included talk of rotating the post between the two parties. Miffed at being denied the top job, either solo or shared, Mr Thackeray broke from the BJP and joined the Congress and NCP.

BJP On The Attack

The early friction in MVA seat-sharing talks has prompted jibes from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, with the BJP’s Mumbai unit boss, Ashish Shelar predicting its break-up from the strain.

“Most likely, MVA will break over seat sharing. And if, somehow they sustain through seat sharing, it will break afterwards as three parties are there for the Chief Minister’s post,” he said Sunday.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s alliance isn’t free of seat-sharing squabbles either, with the Sena group led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP faction of his deputy, Ajit Pawar, pushing for more.

READ | “Those Born In Family Of Millionaires…”: BJP’s Swipe At Uddhav

The BJP’s poor showing in the Lok Sabha election – in which it won only nine of 28 seats contested – has given the Shinde Sena, in particular, more bargaining power. The Shinde Sena won seven of 15 seats contested, giving it a significantly greater strike-rate. Ajit Pawar’s NCP won one of four.

Dates for the Maharashtra Assembly election have yet to be announced. The 2019 election was held on October 21, with the Sena-BJP combine winning 161 seats to the Congress-led UPA’s 98.

In July the BJP’s alliance bounced back from the poor Lok Sabha showing by registering a big win in MLC polls. The BJP fielded five candidates, including Pankaja Munde, the daughter of late senior leader Gopinath Munde. All five won. Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP named two each and all four won. 

With input from agencies

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