In Prashant Kishor’s Big Poll Prediction, East, South Warning For Opposition

Less than two weeks before the general election, poll strategist Prashant Kishor sounded a red alert for the Congress and INDIA opposition bloc, warning of improved performances – seats + vote share – by Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s Bharatiya Janata Party across six eastern and southern states.

Mr Kishor – who has guided the Congress, the Trinamool, and the Aam Aadmi Party to wins over the Prime Minister’s BJP – repeated his warnings of the past – that the ruling party is not invincible.

But he also warned the opposition it is running out of chances to stop the BJP juggernaut, pointing to a string of missed opportunities between 2016 and 2018, as well as the pandemic. “If you drop catches, the batter will score a century… especially if he is a good batter,” he told news agency PTI.

Prashant Kishor’s Warning For Opposition

“They (the BJP) will either be first or second in Telangana… which is a big thing. They will be No 1 in Odisha for sure. Also, you would be surprised… to my mind the BJP is going to be No 1 in Bengal,” Mr Kishor said, flagging states in each of which the party has lost the most recent Assembly election.

“In Tamil Nadu, the party may hit double-digit vote share,” he said. For context, the BJP’s vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was 3.6 per cent and only 2.6 per cent in the 2021 Assembly poll.

These are parts of the country the BJP has, in the past, struggled for traction, with its hardcore nationalist ideology not quite resonating with voters; in 2014 and 2019 it won only seven and 30 of the 164 seats across Telangana, Odisha, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala.

The exception was Karnataka, where the BJP won 25 of 28 seats in 2019. That said, many believe the party has been weakened here too after the Congress’ big win in last year’s Assembly election.

READ | In Karnataka, BJP vs BJP Could Derail Party’s ‘Mission South’ Plan

Fast-forward five years, though, and the BJP’s persistent outreach and boots-on-the-ground approach in these regions could pay (relatively) big dividends, which will boost the party profile for forthcoming polls even if it does not translate into success for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Three of these six states – Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu – will vote by 2026.

The BJP has made a “major and visible push” to expand in these states, Mr Kishor said, pointing to repeat visits by the Prime Minister and Home Minister Amit Shah, the party’s two biggest hitters.

Mr Modi has made six and counting to Tamil Nadu alone.

“Count the visits Prime Minister has made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi, or any other opposition leader for that matter, made in battleground states.

BJP’s Hindi Heartland Advantage

The opposition, Mr Kishor argued, has failed, so far, to make a similar push in the northern and western states – the Hindi heartland – where 239 seats are in play and the BJP is dominant.

Mr Modi has demanded 370+ seats – to ensure the opposition cannot, for a third successive term, challenge his BJP – and over 400 including National Democratic Alliance partners.

A big chunk of this will come from the heartland states, which include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Uttarakhand.

READ | “BJP Will Cross 370 Seats, NDA 400”: PM Modi’s Big Claim

In the heart of the heartland – Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar – there are 149 seats. In 2019 the BJP won 107 and the Congress won three, eight including those won by current allies.

The Congress slipped to Assembly poll defeats in three states last year – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh – and three others – Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat – the year before.

And Mr Kishor red-flagged this concern in his comments.

“Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh… but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success,” Mr Kishor said, in comments seen as a swipe at Mr Gandhi and his ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’, which toured the north-eastern states this year.

Manipur and Meghalaya have a combined four Lok Sabha seats.

“370 Unlikely For BJP But…”

Overall, Mr Kishor acknowledged the BJP is unlikely to hit its ambitious target, but suggested the Prime Minister’s party would still record an easy win backed by results from heartland strongholds.

The BJP “will feel the heat only if the opposition, especially the Congress, can ensure it loses around 100 seats in the north and west”. But that he told PTI “is not going to happen”.

“By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions,” he predicted.

The opposition’s solution – the INDIA bloc – has been downplayed by Mr Kishor, who indicated it is neither a “desirable nor effective” option since nearly 350 seats are already one-on-one contests.

The key, he said, is to ensure each opposition party has a clear “narrative, face, and agenda”.

It isn’t all doom and gloom for the opposition.

Mr Kishor rejected a suggestion that a third straight win will mean the BJP will extend its already long domination of politics. “This is a big illusion…” he said, “As long as the opposition acts.”

Prashant Kishor On Rahul Gandhi

On Mr Gandhi’s apparent reluctance to contest from the Congress stronghold of Amethi in UP – which the BJP’s Smriti Irani won in 2019 – Mr Kishor warned “if you do not win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, there is no benefit if you win from Wayanad”.

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Mr Gandhi is to defend his Lok Sabha seat from Kerala’s Wayanad, but seems unlikely to return to Amethi. “Strategically… I can say letting Amethi go will only send a wrong message,” Mr Kishor said.

READ | “Nobody Can Help You If…”: Prashant Kishor’s Advice To Rahul Gandhi

There are also questions marks over the Congress’ second UP stronghold – Raebareli, which was won by Sonia Gandhi in 2019. Mrs Gandhi has shifted to the Rajya Sabha this year.

The Congress has not named a new candidate for this seat either.

2024 Lok Sabha Election

The country will vote in a seven-phase election that starts April 19 and concludes June 1. The results will be declared by June 4.

With input from agencies

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