Opinion: Opinion: Eye On China As India Invites Key Regional Partners At NDA Swearing-In

The decision to invite seven regional heads of state to the swearing-in ceremony of the NDA has been made to consolidate ties with nations that lie at the heart of Delhi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy.

Though unspoken, ‘Neighbourhood First’ aims to ward off an increasingly expansionist China, whose ‘String of Pearls’ policy looks to dominate the Indian Ocean region through aggressive promotion of infrastructure projects and the establishment of naval bases and ports.

Heads of state from Mauritius, Seychelles, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Bangladesh have begun arriving in New Delhi ahead of Sunday evening’s ceremony.

Significantly, neither China nor Pakistan has been invited to the swearing-in of the Narendra Modi-led government.

Perhaps the most significant invite is to President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives, who is set to meet the Prime Minister for the first time.

By accepting the invite, the Maldives seems willing to engage India despite the recent setback in ties when Male asked New Delhi to withdraw all military personnel from the island nation.

President Muizzu, who came to power on an ‘India Out’ plank, has since signed a military pact with Beijing, which allows for the provision of Chinese military assistance free of charge to foster stronger bilateral ties.

In February this year, a Chinese research vessel, the Xian Yang Hong 03, docked in Male, a move with clear military implications for New Delhi.

Though China insists its vessels are deployed for peaceful purposes, India’s Navy Chief Admiral Hari Kumar, who recently retired, had told NDTV that the Navy is concerned that these vessels are charting underwater regions and ”may have military applications as well in terms of the ability to deploy submarines or operate submarines.”

China already operates a military facility in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, its first international base. Satellite imagery reveals that the base is now fully operational, with key warships docked at newly constructed piers large enough to berth aircraft carriers in the future.

India counters this Chinese base with a facility on the Mauritian island of Agalega. Construction on the island and reports of the presence of Indian military personnel indicate that this may become a permanent forward base, though neither Mauritius nor India openly speaks about future plans.

Recent images indicate the presence of new jetties with an upgrade to the airstrip on the island, which is being extended. It is believed that Agalega would ultimately base Indian Navy P-8 maritime reconnaissance aircraft, a key asset to track Chinese naval activity in the region.

Further east, in Sri Lanka, New Delhi has been working hard to balance China’s active infrastructure activity on the island. In August 2022, New Delhi objected to the Chinese deployment of the Yang Wang 05, a state-of-the-art missile and satellite tracking vessel, to Hambantota, a Sri Lankan deep-water port.

Colombo, which had cleared China’s development of the port, has since lost control of its ownership as a result of indebtedness, with a Chinese company having taken ownership.

Indian companies are now playing an increasingly important role in Sri Lanka’s infrastructure development, in key projects which have also been backed by the United States, a key strategic partner for New Delhi.

In November last year, the US International Development Finance Corporation committed $533 million (Rs.4,600 crore) to finance Colombo port’s West Container Terminal project. India’s Adani group holds a 51% stake in the terminal. The US financing is expected to drastically expand the terminal’s shipping capacity.

A separate part of the same port has a terminal operated by China Merchants Port Holdings, a sign of Beijing’s continued focus on Sri Lanka.

While China has engaged several Indian Ocean rim nations through economic partnerships and a strong diplomatic push, Beijing’s approach to Bhutan, a tiny land-locked Himalayan nation, has been more direct.

Through a series of direct incursions upon the sovereign territory of Bhutan, China has carved into hillsides, transforming sparsely populated areas into townships connected with a proper road network.

With no military to speak of, Thimphu has been a mute spectator to China’s salami-slicing of its territory, which continues despite ongoing border talks.

The situation in Bhutan is of critical geostrategic importance to India. With China having illegally occupied large parts of the sensitive Doklam plateau where Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in a faceoff in 2017, New Delhi is wary of any Chinese push further south which would enable its forces to be within artillery range of the Siliguri corridor, the narrow tract of land that connects the Northeast with the rest of India.

To bolster Bhutan, New Delhi signed a series of MoUs across sectors from space to energy to education when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Thimphu in February. He was also honoured with The Order of the Druk Gyalpo, Bhutan’s highest civilian award. Bhutan has also reached out to New Delhi for assistance in various projects, including the new ‘Gelephu Mindfulness City’ planned along Bhutan’s border with Assam.

While broader statements on India’s geostrategic concerns may be missing from any press release following the meetings with visiting heads of state, the deliberate choice of invitations ahead of the swearing-in of the new government clearly indicates New Delhi’s continued foreign policy priority.

Consolidation of existing relationships, stepping up trade, commerce, and reminding regional partners of civilizational links will continue to define the bedrock of India’s regional engagement in the years to come.