Opinion: Opinion: Pakistan In Turmoil Again

Pakistan’s security forces fired tear gas on thousands of supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who stormed the capital Islamabad on Tuesday demanding his release from prison. Six people were killed and many injured in clashes. Pakistan has been in turmoil, with violence ravaging several parts of the country. The frequent faceoff between Imran Khan’s PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf) supporters and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has disrupted the functioning of the country for several months.

The PTI protesters entered Islamabad on Tuesday, led by Bushra Bibi, Imran Khan’s wife, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur. According to reports, the protesters planned to hold a sit-in at D-Chowk, a large square near parliament in Islamabad for the release of Khan. However, the government launched a major crackdown, and jailed and dispersed the supporters yet again. 

Chaos has erupted at a delicate time for Pakistan, which is already facing an upsurge of sectarian violence and separatist militant attacks that have killed hundreds of people in recent months. 

Latest standoff

Imran Khan’s followers have been protesting for months. The latest demonstrations were organised after he issued a “final call” to his supporters, asking them to stay in the capital Islamabad until their demands were met.  

In a post on his X account run by his aides, Khan wrote last week: “To my team, my message is clear: Fight till the last ball… This is the struggle for Pakistan’s survival and true freedom”. Khan also issued a call for more supporters to join protests in the capital.

The PTI protesters believe Khan has been made a political prisoner.

In the February general election in Pakistan, Khan’s party was barred from contesting. It is worth noting that Independent candidates backed by the PTI unexpectedly won most seats, but not enough to form a government.

Khan’s followers call the February election rigged and accuse the government of ruling with a “stolen mandate”.  PTI workers have been demanding fresh elections. Khan’s supporters also want the repeal of a new constitutional amendment to raise the federal government’s influence on the judiciary, including on the selection of judges. 

Khan was overthrown in a parliamentary no-confidence vote in 2022 and has since led a popular campaign against the current government led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, accusing it of colluding with the army to remove him from office. He has been in jail since August 2023 after being convicted in nearly 150 cases.

The omnipotent army and the intelligence agency (ISI) had initially supported Imran Khan as Prime Minister. But Khan fell out of favour after being openly critical of them. Khan continues to have sympathisers in the judiciary, which has given relief to him and his party in several cases, much to the chagrin of the government and the army-ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence). 

Khan enjoys substantial popularity in Punjab and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces but otherwise lacks the support of a majority of Pakistanis. His young supporters in these regions are active on social media. Every time Khan makes a call, they come out to protest. However, the rallies are not a sustained nationwide campaign; they are more like photo-ops that fizzle out after every government crackdown. The same happened this time, too.

“The standoff has ended with decisive action taken by the federal government, which resulted in a hasty retreat by the PTI and its leadership. They have now gone back to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the party has a government,” says Omar Quraishi, a senior journalist based in Pakistan.

“The result now is a badly weakened PTI. Imran Khan has lost whatever bargaining position he had,” he adds.

Khan’s absence has led to a leadership void in his party. Bushra Bibi can’t match his popularity and so, is unable to rally supporters beyond a few days of agitation. The army and ISI (together referred to as establishment) have been consistently opposing any challenge to the present national government.

Turmoil elsewhere

Pakistan has been facing violence in its northwest and southwest regions, where militants and separatists often target the police, troops and civilians.

In the Shia-dominated Kurram district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near the Afghan border, at least 82 people were killed in the latest three-day sectarian violence in Pakistan till November 24. Interestingly, the north-west province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the only place where the PTI continues to hold power in Pakistan.    

The latest bloodshed began on November 21 after gunmen attacked down civilian convoys, killing at least 40 people, mostly Shia Muslims. In retaliation, residents in the area of Kurram targeted Sunni Muslims. The two communities have fought for centuries, but the latest round of squabbling was aggravated in July over a land dispute; dozens of people from both sides were been killed.

“The way forward for all sides is to sit down and discuss a code of conduct which should be followed by all parties and to exhibit a degree of tolerance for each other,” says Quraishi.  

The onus of violence in south-western Balochistan province has been put on members of the banned BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) by the Pakistan establishment.

The insurgency in Balochistan, which has existed for decades, has gained momentum in recent years since the province’s deep-water Gwadar port was leased to China, as part of Beijing’s ‘Belt and Road’ infrastructure push in Pakistan. The BLA has carried out several fatal attacks in Pakistan this year, most recently in October, when it attacked Chinese engineers, leaving two of them dead in Karachi. 

As PM Sharif’s army-backed government debates ways to tackle the latest challenges and violence that has drawn global attention, at stake is Pakistan’s stressed economy, once again.

Pakistan has been struggling to fix its economy for many years. Inflation had surged to a record 38% in May 2023, while foreign reserves dwindled to just more than $3bn. It narrowly avoided default when Sharif, in his first stint as prime minister, managed to secure a new, nine-month long $3billion Stand-by Agreement with the International Monetary Fund in June 2023.

As Pakistan struggles to control the violence, its leadership is more preoccupied with domestic politics than addressing the country’s economic woes. The country’ stock index has already witnessed the largest single-day decline due to “opposition protest concerns”. The establishment’s strategy of a myopic situation-based strategy has failed to either provide a long-term peace solution or improve the economy, so far.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author