S Jaishankar’s 5-Year World Prediction Amid West Asia War Fears, US Election

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has painted a bleak picture of where the world might be in five years, warning of a “very grim forecast” given military tension in West Asia, between Ukraine and Russia, and in Southeast Asia, as well as economic challenges and the spectre of climate change.

The possibility of such a future “makes the case” for a stronger relationship between India and the United States, Mr Jaishankar said as much, if not all, of the world waits on the outcome of November’s US presidential election many believe will be the second coming of Donald Trump.

“I am an optimistic person and generally tend to think of solutions to problems rather than the problems that come out of solutions. But I would say, with a great deal of sobriety, that we are going through an exceptionally difficult period,” Mr Jaishankar said Tuesday at an event in Delhi.

“… (and) I have a very grim forecast for the next five years… you see happening in the Middle East, in Ukraine, in Southeast and East Asia, and the continued impact of COVID, which those of us who have come out of it take for granted… but many have not come out of it,” Mr Jaishankar said.

The reference to tension in the Middle East, or West Asia, was underlined Monday by the United States and its European allies calling on Iran to “stand down” as fears mount of yet another a full-scale war.

READ | US, European Allies Tell Iran To “Stand Down” Israel Attack Threats

This follows Israel’s attack on the Gaza. Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, have vowed revenge for the killing of the Hamas’ political leader and a Hezbollah commander.

India – caught in a tight spot between two friendly nations – has advised both sides to exercise restraint and resolved all issues with “dialogue and diplomacy”, Mr Jaishankar’s office said in April.

In today’s comments Mr Jaishankar built on the threats posed by military conflict to the world and warned this would spill over into economic challenges, such as rising fuel and fertiliser prices precipitated last year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The kind of economic challenges you see in the world… you see more and more countries struggling. Trade is getting difficult, there are forex shortages… so, you know, disruptions of various kinds,” he said, also referring to concerns over increased pirate attacks in the Red Sea by Iran-aligned Houthi militia targeting commercial ships in a ‘show of solidarity’ with Palestinians in Gaza.

“What was happening in the Red Sea (and) climate events… are no longer just news… they have globally disruptive consequences and sometimes entire regions are basically made dysfunctional.”

#WATCH | Delhi | On being asked how he sees the world today, EAM Dr S Jaishankar says, “…We are going through an exceptionally difficult period. If I were to say give a 5-year forecast, then it would be a grim forecast. And I think the answers are there, you see what is… pic.twitter.com/JVgWwetsco

— ANI (@ANI) August 13, 2024

“This makes the case for India-US ties… not just about treaties (but) much more…” he said.

However, Mr Jaishankar refused to get drawn into a discussion on the US election.

“We don’t comment on other countries’ elections. The US will give its verdict (and) we have every confidence, based on the past 20 years, we can work with the President… whoever he or she will be.”

The 2024 US presidential election will see Vice President Kamala Harris, a late pick for the Democrats after President Joe Biden, the first (and contentious) choice, stood down. Ms Harris faces the returning and twice-impeached Donald Trump, the Republican candidate bidding for a second term.

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